Fri 18 Jul 2008
Oh Dollar, Where is My Dollar Cost Average?
Posted by dong under My Portfolio , InvestingNo Comments
Late last week, the aggregate value of one my larger holdings (WFIVX - a Wilshire 5000 Index Fund) turned red. Up through about November of last year I had been investing steadily since September of 2003, mostly through monthly purchases and occasional large purchase. I have since shifted over to Vanguard, but because of the rich history of steady contributions the value of those holdings serves as a bell weather of my overall investment exposure.
Lately that bell weather has behaved more like a canary in coal mine. Effectively all the paper gains of the last couple years have been erased. Everything purchased after November 2006 is worth less than what I purchased the shares at, and down enough that those losses offset the gains on purchases made before then. That’s over 5 years of investing that’s effectively currently a wash. I’m OK. For me right now it’s all numbers on a page.
For those are are near retirement age or retired, the current market conditions might be quite devastating. My parents fall in this camp, and they’re rightly worried but worried more than they should be. I’ve already moved a substantial portion of their holdings out of equities. For people like my parents who are dependent are investment income rather than real income to support their lifestyle, market moves can be gut wrenching. That’s why it’s so important to have the appropriate life stage asset allocation.
The other more salient point that I think we can all take away from the markets is not to count on 10% returns. I could easily go through my whole asset accumulation portion of my life and experience low single digit returns if that. Like so many things in life, it’s all about timing. While many people pooh pooh market timing, all investors are implicitly timing the market by virtue of what era they live in. Unfortunately, I don’t believe I timed my birth particularly well in terms of the market. Oh well.

